2018 ended with uncertainty on the market: bitcoin is not dead, as he predicted hundreds of times, but not committed “to” that predicted fewer times. However, amid falling prices of cryptocurrencies among the business representatives have the opportunity to show that their activity related to cryptocurrency and bloccano, has the right to life, can be valuable and useful even in a falling market. It is hoped that this trend will continue in 2019.
But what is the future of crypto-currencies and decentralized technologies within businesses? And what to expect from 2019? Journal ForkLog gathered opinions about blockchain from leading experts and representatives of cryptobytes from Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia.
Artem Tolkachev, CEO Tokenomica
Bitcoin: I Believe that in the field of cryptocurrencies in 2019 there will be many interesting events. The market is clearly divided under the influence of regulators and traditional institutions Fiat monetary system. Probably in 2019, this division will become even more noticeable. I see four main groups of cryptocurrencies.
- Maximum compliance with the legislation, obtaining licenses, conducting of all necessary procedures for the issuance, redemption, trade, etc.
- Full compliance legislation, the maximum anonymity of transactions, the difficulty of the official translation in Fiat.
- Cryptocurrency with algorithmic issue and without a single center of decision-making which will gradually come closer in status to the first group.
- Numerous yutiliti-tokens (which some exceptions are not) will experience more and more pressure from all sides. You think we will see not a single lawsuit and not one conviction for fraud.
ICO will remain as a tool to attract funding for projects early, but given the trend on maximum compliance with the regulation, this tool will be similar to the combination of venture capital deals and crowdfunding, the main investors are likely to be professional players (funds, etc.).
The STO will develop and acquire infrastructure. Do not share the opinion that it was the replacement of the ICO, is probably one of the cases of tokenization, suggesting the emergence of a more liquid and safe instruments, standing at the intersection of classical and cryptocurrency financial world.
In addition, I expect a large amount of news about the creation of tokens for various items of the material world (minerals, real estate), financial instruments and other objects. Also likely there will be an infrastructure for handling such tokens.
Blockchain: a Year ago, when we gave projections for 2018, I talked about the fact that this year will be applied to the cases with clear value, which can be implemented on an industrial scale. At the end of the year we can say that such cases did not appear. The reason in my understanding is that from the blockchain often try to do some independent benefit, which in itself brings value. This is not so. The blockchain can be a valuable part of a digital transformation of a particular business, industry, or state.
This transformation should involve at least the digitization of processes and, importantly, a change in business models. When a decentralized registry trying to pull on the model centralized in nature, always produces the same result – easier to do without the blockchain. In my opinion, in 2019 there will be attempts to create a decentralized business models, Internet 3.0, where the benefits of decentralization will be obvious.
Alex Sudadze, founder and CEO of Bitcoin Embassy Georgia
Bitcoin has survived in 2018 is not the best time, although if you look at it retrospectively, all very well. Take the December figure in recent years: 2015 — $400, 2016- $750-$800, 2017- $11 000, 2018 — $4000
If you do not take into account pump at the end of 2017, by the end of 2019 the price should be around $8000 — 9000, though you also need to consider the growing demand for the cryptocurrency world. I will assume that by may 2019, the price will rise above $9000, but here we must consider three main factors:
- The bulk of BTC is in the hands of traders, so the cost of bitcoin while highly speculative, and volatility of 10-15% can be considered normal. Manipulation of the price will stop, if will increase the number of sold goods with bitcoin or the bitcoin will begin to regulate at the state level.
- Over the counter trading (about 70% of total turnover, the BTC/USD), although not reveal the transaction price, but clearly at odds with the price exchanges: +-10% depending on the country. Even the CEO exchanges Binance Chanpen Zhao argues that OTC transactions significantly more revs on the TOP-10 exchanges.
- The miners in different countries, where the mined BTC (mainly China, Russia and poor Asian countries where electricity is cheap), very different cost of the same coin, from $3200 to $5400. In some mining centers, electricity is not exactly legal, in others the equipment is delivered at a much lower price, etc. for Example, in Georgia, the average price in the Free Zone of electricity is about five cents, at this price and the cost of installation and management approximate price of 1 BTC should be about $4500-4700.
Per day globally is approximately 1,800 BTC and they immediately purchased by agents of large investment funds a plus 5-7% of the price on the exchanges. It is believed that large players are buying “hot bitcoins”, that is only laminarnye because they intend to keep them for the long term. They don’t need BTC associated with “black businesses” because they own them may cause problems with the international legal agencies.
Also note a very interesting pattern: every two years, the price of bitcoin against the U.S. dollar increases 10 times. Under this scheme, John Macafee in 2021 will not have to mutilate yourself in front of everyone.
Lasha Antadze, founder of the Shelf.Network
Bitcoin: Assume that in 2019 bitcoin will return to $8 thousand. Satoshi will not find! I think next year we will witness the many stories of fraud and deception in the cryptocurrency sphere. In addition, I propose to draw attention to stabilini. Every year, the industry will grow, it can form the future of private and public money.
Blockchain: Expect development of corporatization of the blockchain and demonstrate its application in large companies. The amount of venture capital in a purely corporate solutions will increase definitely. Also can form a new class of blockchains without tokens.
Konstantin, senior technical Evangelist of Microsoft in Russia
Blockchain: 2018 in the blockchain industry could be called the year of pragmatism. One of the main drivers of the industry, in terms of research, development and application of technology became the corporate world. In order to objectively sum up the year and move to the next forecast, it is necessary to give a brief overview of the historical development of corporate blockchain.
It began relatively recently: in 2015, the number of large companies started to work with technology, in particular, the conference DevCon1 Microsoft announced the availability of a private version of Ethereum in the Azure cloud, thus confirming the rate of serious technology.
2016 was more theoretical than practical from the point of view of real cases, increasing the number of conferences and hackathons, and as a result, «HYIP». In 2017 began to appear more elaborated prototypes of enterprise solutions: for this year was the flourishing of start-UPS and experiments. This helped to identify various constraints impeding the implementation of a distributed registry. All this time, corporations involved in technology development, closely communicated with and received feedback about how to improve the block chain system for their successful implementation in business processes.
For the past two and a half years of work in 2018 were democratized corporate blockchain: there are a set of tools for solving problems of security, integration, the establishment of integrated infrastructures, until the entire consortia. There is a new enterprise platform to create a private blockchain, such as Pegasys and improved version of Quorum, Corda, and others. Began to appear to real cases of the introduction of technology in various industries. An example would be a company Bühler working in the actual implementation of the food chain (food chain), which aims to ensure the safety and waste-free food products.
In my opinion, in 2019 secured three trends: competition blockchain platforms, standardization and the beginning of real commercial applications. A little more about each of them:
- On the market there are many different platforms (Ethereum, EOS, Hyperledger, Corda, Waves and many others), in 2019 escalate their battle for leadership: applicability, adaptability, innovativeness. This will lead to their improvement and approximation to the maximum matching requirements of the market.
- 2019 will be the year of standardization blockchain technology, as well as the work of the consortia and alliances that will develop a common and intuitive approach of the market, from the perspective of technology and business. Actualization of the problem of incompatibility of platforms will provoke a breakthrough in the market of solutions able to provide multi-Protocol integration, as well as work with Off-chain.
- In 2019, in my opinion, we will see the start of real commercial applications of the technology, as will develop the prototypes produced in 2016-2018. Will continue the process of democratization of corporate blockchain: the market will be available not just quickly deployable infrastructure, but ready-made scripts for specific tasks and industries, including for tokenization the business processes. This will reduce the for companies the threshold of the entrance to the consortia, as it will greatly simplify the implementation process and will allow you to experiment more with technology.
I can say that with great optimism and look to next year, in which we enter with the necessary conditions for the conduct of actual Affairs and the implementation of our expectations. In fact, we live in a unique time, as we are witnessing the emergence of a new industry, whose development can be compared with the process of launching a space rocket: she has been trained, the start and overcoming the earth’s gravity, and in 2019 we will finally see the release is in free flight.
Mark Ginsburg, President of the Ukrainian Investment Holding company, the ideologue of the blockchain
Bitcoin: it seems to Me that there are a limited number of cryptocurrency, which is currently useful to consumers, and I expect growth of consumer use in 2019. Everyone is interested in what will happen to the prices of crypto currencies… I Think that we will see as the most useless or abandoned projects will disappear from the exchanges. It will take a few months.
Assume that the price of cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin, will remain low, at least in the first half of the year. However, in the end, as only the weak projects will be expelled and there will be great projects with security tokens, the tide will take place the capital in a quality product, and we will see another strong rise of bitcoin and other cryptoprocta closer to 2020.
Blockchain: 2018 was an important year for the development of the whole industry, because the sale of tokens was carried out for almost all conceivable uses. However, testing the state of the industry, we realized that the blockchain and cryptocurrency — is technology changing the world, but still insufficiently developed to already be effectively used by consumers.
The introduction of blockchain technology for individual users has been slower than we expected, but at the level of the corporate segment, this technology was introduced very quickly, especially in large companies, banking sector and logistics companies. In 2019, this trend will only continue.
Eugene Romanenko, an economist of the Austrian school, YouTube host, a leading crypto-events
Bitcoin: I believe that the emphasis on the course is the sign of a Amateur in the industry who do not understand the phenomenon of the cryptocurrencies. And, worst of all, not trying to understand. It is doomed to consider bitcoin and altcoins only as a tool, on the course which you can earn. The ending of this activities are usually disastrous: «this is your bitcoin…but no one needs.»
The price of cryptocurrency into Fiat currency from an economic point of view means that its value is understood and recognized by the market. Of course, this value is subjective. The basis of the architecture of the financial system of the 20th century, developed on the eve of the First World, is not backed by gold, the paper is theoretically unlimited issued by the Central Bank in exchange for government debt. This is the biggest pyramid in history, and it laid down that any Fitna unit to be devalued. What happened in the 20th century, all without exception, with Fiat currency, which has lost 99% of its original value or completely eliminated.
Everything described above in bitcoin just yet. Its devaluation is eliminated mathematically. Fitna weight will only bloat – reduction is equivalent to a voluntary waiver of all addicts of the world from taking the next dose.
Therefore, the exchange rate of bitcoin is a phenomenon at the intersection of cryptocurrency and Fiat of the masses. More precisely, the needs of the many market participants.
Therefore, long-term forecast – a definite height (do not forget that devalue units of Fiat). In the medium term is expected to uniquely unpredictable volatility. But any predictions on the level of numbers is unfair speculation on the trend and information noise. Let me remind you that the fantastic growth at the end of 2017 came as a surprise to all that he says about the meaningless of any forecast.
Blockchain: As we all remember, the oddity is that the term «blockchain» in bitcoin white paper by Satoshi Nakamoto no. So the skepticism on the subject, there is such technology, in principle, I believe rightly so. But the technology of distributed registry (DLT), decentralized storage without third parties (which we have to trust, and who regularly this trust is not justified), supported by economic incentives has taken place. 10-year anniversary of the Genesis block of bitcoin, which we celebrate on January 3, confirmation.
Then begins the unpredictable Orgy of attempts to use DLT where necessary and where not necessary. To a large extent this occurs in order to ride the hype, to attract the attention and money of investors. What happens will see in the next years.
With regard to public and private blockchains, here my position is close Andreas Antonopoulos the unenviable fate of the second, as the fate of corporate intranets and Microsoft-outlookof. True, vigorous, viable blockchain can only be independent, open your own crypto-currency.
Andrew Sobol, the developer of consensus in Pandora Boxchain
Bitcoin: In 2019 (as in 2020, 2021, 2022, etc.) cryptocurrency will step by step become a universal means of payment. To make this happen, we need to solve three pressing problems: decentralization, scalability, and privacy.
To achieve this we need decentralized consensus protocols are able to build a network. And they will be working in 2019. Researcher in the field of PoS, DAG will delivereth and we watch.
To solve problems of scale, there are developments in the field of payment channels (LN, Raiden), Saidjanov (RSK, POA Network, Liquid), channel States (Plasma), aggregation of signatures (BLS, Schnorr, Zk proofs).
In the field of privacy are the most active work will occur on such projects as Grin (MimbleWimble Realisation), Monero, zcash for.
Blockchain: it makes sense to use where joint from register users receive more than the costs of maintaining the Ledger. And decentralized registries are expensive, so it is not yet clear in which areas it makes sense, but no. Only time will tell. In 2019 just to develop the technology Web3.
Sergey Lonshakov, blockchain developer, leader projects Airalab and «Ribonomic»
Bitcoin and the blockchain: In 2018, much discussed technology Web3. In addition, libp2p and in General, p2p protocols, messaging, serverless application of sovereign identification, various models of decentralized computers, and storage — all this has reached a critical mass and is ready to demonstrate not let the average user, but not only to the developer. I think the development of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology in 2019 will occur in the plane restart the Internet on decentralized technologies.
Predict that the crypt will grow in technical terms accurately. The most important improvement of the technology of the blockchain in the first place will find themselves in hardforce, softforce and the launch of new services for major cryptocurrency networks.
In 2019 will continue the cornerstone and eternal for mankind war paradigms of thinking between the electoral system delegates and the views of cryptoanalysts. ]I mean first EOS vs Ethereum.
Alexey Kirienko, EXANTE Managing partner
Bitcoin: he’s heavily underestimated. And this is a great level to make yourself a Christmas gift. Still, Rockefeller said, «Buy when on the streets of bloodshed».
The reasons in favor of the growth of bitcoin:
- Doomed to growth in nature: has completed one cycle of length three. Next plateau and growth.
- Ppl were no longer threatened. Ended the civil war, the remains of which we see in a Bitcoin Cash.
- The volume of transactions will deliver a new peak in the spring.
- The final decision regarding ETF will be in February. The probability of a positive decision at least 30%. If you happen to a long-awaited miracle, we will make a maximum of six months.
- Next year will be feeling the approaching halving, which is scheduled for may 2020, but before it happens we will see bitcoin above $20,000.
In the long term with Ethereum too, all will be well. The technology has proven itself as a viable. The Ethereum survived his short but bright gold rush.
A significant portion of altcoins — empty coins, for which there is no innovation or ecosystems. But there is a very interesting, breakthrough things. Fell the whole market, and this is an opportunity to buy quality altcoins that have technological innovation and working prototypes.
Pavel Kravchenko, candidate of technical Sciences and founder of the Distributed Lab
Bitcoin serves a certain niche of the payments, where is the replacement, he actually is not, therefore the demand is stable. Price at the moment reflects a purely speculative operation, so it can go down under the influence of the regulators (they do not need an asset that can not be controlled) or major events (the collapse of the Tether or large exchanges). Count on institucionales only in a very short time, since bitcoin is not created for institucionales, it is designed for operations without censorship. Other cryptocurrencies are used in actual operations is extremely small compared to bitcoin, so their future is uncertain. Token-ICO will either go to 0 or for live projects will be converted into securities.
Blockchain: We are in the beginning of development of blockchain technologies and their implementation. Real mass adoption will start in three years. You need to consider the technical readiness of the solution (enough to make a blockchain-based platform, the desired product) and legal support of processes of decentralized decision-making (even within organizations).
Anatoly Radchenko, managing partner UnitedTraders
Bitcoin: to understand the trends of the coming years, it is necessary to understand properly what has happened over the last year.
- The market for classic ICO sample 2016-2017 died.
- High expectations for scalability and integration of the blockchain, the Corporation did not materialize.
- Regulators are seriously worried about the manipulated market of cryptocurrencies.
- Everyone expects ETFs and commodity futures, that is, centralized financial products that will finally go the phantom of the institutional money.
In my opinion, the most serious of innovative companies will switch to bitcoin. Will the development of smart katrakhov, Saidjanov and other technologies that use the master branch of bitcoin as custodian, and calculations carried out on adjacent networks. Lighting will increase and will appear more user-friendly applications that resemble modern mobile banks, but without a Central counterparty.
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