How to prepare for the coming bull market altcoins

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A cryptanalyst and a designer of tools for the Python Quant capturadora known as Crypto Quantic Ph.D, expressed on account of the impending bull market altcoins and gave some practical recommendations to investors. We offer you to familiarize yourself with them.

«Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: never forget rule No. 1» — Warren Buffett

So, you bought some number of altcoins, hoping to catch a wave and get five, ten or even a hundred times more than you invested. If so, then do not worry, you are not alone. The so-called «altcoins season» returns, as evidenced by numerous posts in social networks.

However, you were hoping for this:

And get this:

Course altcoins fell faster than the reputation of Kevin spacey, not only to bitcoin, but also against the USD.

What happened?

Before, I share valuable tips, let’s look at the development of the situation over the past few months.

I believe that in this period we witnessed the «perfect storm» of three interacting forces. Let us look at each of them, and then I’ll give you five recommendations that will help you to prepare for the impending return of altcoins.

Problem # 1: too many people waiting for the return of altcoins

One of my favorite quotes belongs to American billionaire Bernard Baruch, who once said: «the Main purpose of stock exchanges is to fool as many people as possible».

If there’s one thing I have learned over the years is the fact that if all «know» about future changes in the market, these changes will never come. The gods of the stock market will not allow it.

For example, have you ever noticed that as soon as the company publishes its earnings report after the successful quarter, the company’s share price instantly drops? This tendency of markets to respond to events before they occurred, is called «discounting». For this reason, there is the famous phrase: «buy the rumor, sell the news».

With the development of cryptorhynchus, increasing the value of the information. Gone are the days when you could be confident in choosing a particular coin, only on the basis of the latest updates developers or altcoins listing on the exchange. Just remember: the more people predict an event, the less likely that it will actually happen. Not everyone can win, someone must lose.

Problem number 2. The cyclical nature of the market rules over all

If you are not familiar with classical chart market cycle based on emotions of players, then drop everything you’re doing and read about it.

Market cycle is a universal pattern of behavior that is displayed in the development of all assets and present at all time intervals. Look at the charts of gold, Dow, bitcoin in 2013, USD or even the electrocardiogram of the heart. We meet it everywhere.

Market cycle can be described as an impulsive wave movement, where every ascent is followed by a decline. This behavior is explained by the striking reasons that you can write books.

But yet, everything you need to know is:

1. Usually, a new pulse does not occur until the end of a «cycle of decline» and decreases volatility. (See. the figure below).

2. This fall altcoins have been in a cycle of decline.

In the period of the cycle of decline of small adjustments to give investors hope that it’s going to rise, but each time disappointed. Familiar with this situation?

Problem number 3. The low liquidity adding fuel to the fire

The asset is considered liquid, if you can easily sell and buy it, without affecting the price. For example, imagine that you buy a share of Walmart (the world’s largest retail chain). To buy and sell these shares easily, since it was released a large number of shares of the company, and if you buy one or two it almost does not affect their price.

Now imagine that you sell your house, and you — one of the three sellers of real estate in your area. Your neighbor decided to sell his house, but at a price much lower than yours. Now you have to lower the price of your house because of one single vendor. This is called the market of illiquid assets.

One way of assessing the liquidity of the asset — look at the number of sellers and buyers. We can estimate this figure by looking at the trading volumes. Below is a graph 600 of the first altcoins compared with bitcoin.

We see that bitcoin alone controls about 40% of the trade volume of all cryptocurrencies. And 90% of the trades happening Althingi of the top 10.

Why is it important?

This means that if I as an investor would take $1,000 from Aldona and invest it in bitcoin, the price Aldona, in most cases, will decrease considerably, while the price of bitcoin will rise not so much. Now multiply that by millions of investors and you will understand how the slightest excitement of the bitcoin exchange rate could cause real chaos in the market of altcoins. However, liquidity is not always a bad thing. Tenfold and hundredfold growth we’ve seen in the past on the market of altcoins, due to the low liquidity: something that depreciates quickly, it can also quickly rise in price and Vice versa.

When you’re waiting for the return of altcoins?

In their hunt for mnogoobescajuscij Althingi, I am always guided by five factors:

One of the altcoins have become a leader and lead the rest, showing what he’s capable of. (Whether this was the case with Bitcoin Cash?).

The long-term trend in the decline should stabilize and altcoins should start to trade in a narrow range (the classic Bollinger Band).

The crossing of moving averages on the longer time frames.

Altcoins are beginning to set a higher daily lows.

Twitter ends’or #ANTIVIRUSSECURITY!!!

Good luck, let the trend will always be on your side!

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Where flows the air and what do the whales

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30 days the air fell by 60% — the strongest of all of the top 10 cryptocurrencies, with the exception of EOS, which in the same time lost in the price about 70%.

While the whole market is going through hard times, and with the air already had a chance to say goodbye meme «the broadcast ends with», it is easy to sow FUD news about the movement of large sums and that supposedly the developers are pulling air, disappointed in this cryptocurrency. DeCenter figured out where to actually flowing frightening amount of air and whether FUD’it (spoiler: never).

FUD or not FUD

In late November, there were rumors that the developer of Ethereum transfers the funds for sale. But the reality is a little more complicated.

Purse, received 380,000 ETH during the pre-sale of ether (have been accrued when you run the network 30, 2015) carried out two major transactions (2 and 19 November), which in total amounted to 380,000.04115819 ETH. Thus, the kit actually emptied the wallet, brought out the first 380,000 ETH and an additional amount accrued in the course of the subsequent a pair of small transactions. The recipient of both transactions was another large wallet in which the balance after crediting the translated broadcast was more than 454,547 ETH. However, and this wallet is devastated: November 21, during the 7 transactions he led all 454547.072 ETH. The first 6 transactions (five for 50 ETH and one 46,052.99921 ETH) was sent to the same address, and the largest transaction in more 158,494 ETH on a separate. Next, almost all of this amount (158,494 ETH) long ways in a few addresses left for Kraken, Bitfinex and Binance.

If you look at other «loud» movement in the blockchain that occurred recently, it may be noted that many of them (translation 115,000 ETH 97,476 ETH and ETH 152,071 November 19, as well as three transactions in ETH 25,000, 25,000 and 40,000 ETH ETH committed 14-15 November) was accumulated also at the same address, which suggests that all of these addresses controlled by one whale. And the address that sent the transaction to 115,000 ETH November 19, was also a recipient 436,000 ETH accrued at the end of the presale. Today this address is sold: in addition to the 115,000 ETH, he made two more transactions: on November 21 (91,000 ETH) and 5 December (229,999.999086 ETH), which together accounted for 435,999.999 an extracted air, i.e. almost equal to the calculation in the framework of the presale.

However, if 115,000 ETH continued the journey to the exchange through a number of other addresses, it amounts to 91,000 ETH and 229,999.999086 ETH lie while, at the same address intact.

It should be noted that not all «movements» of whales should be considered as an anomaly. For some addresses the transfer of large amounts, including their conclusion on the stock exchange, is a pattern that is easy to follow the transaction history of that address.

So, the translation 17,723 ETH on Okex, recorded on November 26 and became the reason for another FUD-ial news that whales gampat air is quite usual for this account: judging from the transaction, this address is used for trading from March 2018 and regularly displays the (sometimes) large sums from the stock exchanges — usually Gemini and sometimes Bitfinex and translates them into Okex — probably because of this exchange possible insights into Chinese yuan.

Other major transactions from November 30:

At the end of November — beginning of December 25,074 1000 ETH and ETH derived from the exchanges Kraken and Poloniex is one of the whales, who last withdrawal of funds from this address on 18 December 2017 (also Poloniex) and a lot of trader from may to December 2017, bringing with exchanges, 6000-13,000 ETH.

30 Nov Whale Alert reported on several major transactions, forwarding approximately equal amounts with an interval of a few minutes or hours, and many of them ended the same — creating accounts for 150,000 112,500 or esters, which still remain intact. So, the first such transaction was sent at 03:33 UTC and contained 183,371 ETH, where ETH 180,000 at the moment (probably temporarily) finished his journey on two accounts, where they were sent during the 48 separate transactions.

The second similar transaction was sent from another address in a few minutes. It contained 245,300 ETH, most of which are also in numerous transactions 3750 ETH, spilled over into several still frozen addresses for ETH 150,000.

Then, after a few hours, was conducted another transaction, this time worth 552,124 ETH, and it also broke into many 3750-essential transactions that have shaped the accounts for 150,000 esters.

After about an hour the same pattern carried out the transaction in 558,116 ether, and after another hour in 670,941 ether.

Two hours went new transaction in 672,524 ETH — she left addresses, dormant for over 200 days. Except for small amounts for 4, 6.5, 3.8 ETH, which was sent to Binance, most of the funds went to the same «magical» accounts for 150,000 ETH, in 166 transactions 3750 ETH. And one of the «child» addresses in the chain translated into Kucoin about 20,000 ETH for the last 6 days.

Before the day was done several similar transactions: 221,989 ETH (a substantial part of this transaction went to Binance and Bitfinex), 224,804 (most of it flowed on accounts containing 150,000 esters, in the form of transactions 37,500 esters), 672,784 ETH — from her small part in 25.9, 16.9, 4.5, 7.4 ETH went on Binance, and 597,699 ETH — parties for 4 transactions 37,500 ETH (and one transaction in 35,199 ETH) on 4 separate addresses (1, 2, 3, 4), which like other similar addresses, is intact.

Between these «transaction-twins» took another two major transactions with the same address on the same address and peresylali about the same amount of approximately 90,010 ETH with an interval of 25 minutes.

December 1, more than half a million ether (ETH 1,538,423) went to the new address, so having an address that led his story from August 2016 to December 1, 2018 and solely to accumulated funds. According to sources, the address belongs to a user who is engaged in mining and trading. The air came from the address of the Miner pools Gate, Nanopool, Ethermine, and exchanges Shapeshift, Okex, Bittrex, Poloniex, BTC-e and others.

Several small amounts have been translated into Gemini (~2,456 ETH), Binance (12 ETH), Bitfinex (1000 ETH), Kraken (~1,300 ETH and ETH 3000).

However, most of the funds 1,350,000 ETH — flowed already familiar with the same parties (for 4 transactions, each with a 37,500 ETH) in 9 new locations and while they have not moved (on the same address «harmony» a little disturbed — there are the same round 150,000 ETH, but translated in the course of 5 transactions).

Uneven amount of 76,475 ETH flowed to another address. And 23,951 ETH ETH 1,538,423 of the original remains intact.

3 Dec unknown user moved from one large address 20,000 esters in two batches — 19,900 ETH 100 and ETH. It was one of the few outgoing transactions from an address that has accumulated aired July 2018 (and usually received round sum of 20, 50, 120, 250, 500 ETH). And it was the largest outbound transaction from this address. Further combined, at the same address 19,999.994 ETH went on Binance.

It was not so

Yet while many are panicking that the whales are selling bitcoin and gampat ether, the researchers see the situation quite differently.

According to the latest weekly report from analysts at research group Diar posted on December 3, Ethereum-whales continue to accumulate funds and only intensified, using the best for the purchase price.

According to the study, from January 2018, the number of air on the top 500 wallets of whales increased by 80%. So, as of January 1, whales owned 11 millions of esters, and by 30 November this figure was 20 million, which corresponds to approximately 20% of the total air in circulation.

Diar suggests that whales may have begun to strengthen their Ethereum-as due to the fact that SEC returned to active regulation of the crypto-space, and also in connection with the change of attitudes towards the ICO projects. Recently, the SEC imposed a fine on the projects AirFox, Paragon and the stock exchange EtherDelta, and some experts called it «the beginning of the second phase of regulation.» Presumably, the behavior of the SEC spooked many «aldayarov» who rushed to convert ICO-tokens of standard ERC20 on the air.

Diar researchers note that although the savings whales in Vietnam terms fell by 90%, their balance in the air for the 4th quarter of 2018 grew by 270% in comparison with the 3rd quarter.

How’s Vitalik

Account Buterin remains without major fluctuations. «Hodler level: expert,» wrote one commentator under his address. Now it is 355,003 esters, and for the last 300 days since it was sent only one outgoing transaction — 10,000 ETH on November 22. The owner of the host address is not set, but contributions to it are periodic in nature (and used to happen more often). So, four transfer 10,000 ETH with the address Balerina to this address was made in December 2017 and February 2018, two translations of 20,000 at the ETH went to him in may and July 2017, and the translation in 14,998 ETH in June 2017. Some suggest that this address is also controlled by Baleriny.

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The Minister of economic development of Russia: Investment in bitcoin is worse than the casino

The Minister of economic development of Russia Maxim Oreshkin believes that investing in bitcoin is worse than the casino, unskilled investors should not be able to invest in instruments with such volatility.

«As for bitcoin, if you look how varies the value of the asset is ten percent up and ten percent down. Normal asset, which may invest an unskilled investor should not have such characteristics, because this is worse than a casino in that sense. You earn, then you lose everything and remain with nothing,» – expressed his opinion the Minister during the session of the world festival of youth and students.

Also in the discussion of the regulation of cryptocurrencies in Russia, Oreshkin joked that it looks like part of a hypothetical plan for world domination machines:

«If it really existed in the world of artificial intelligence, which would like the world to capture and enslave, he really is the first thing that was invented, this is bitcoin, the Minister said. – Because look what is happening: the amount of computing power to the blockchain and mining of cryptocurrencies] begins to grow and grow, appear a mining farm that allow you to do the calculations, but such a global artificial intelligence of these computing capabilities could be used for its training, obtaining new knowledge and development. To get people to repeatedly produce computing power – the first step to world domination»

We will remind, today the Minister of communications Nikolay Nikiforov has revealed details of the Ministry decrees of the government on the technical aspects of the treatment of cryptocurrencies in Russia. It is assumed that the emission of cryptocurrencies will control the state, and their appeal business.

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Wences Casares criticized opponents of bitcoin

The head of the crypto Xapo and Board member PayPal Wences Casares (Wences Casares) has criticized the position of people who say they appreciate the technology of the blockchain, while don’t trust bitcoin.

It shows a lack of understanding of how the system works. Because this is the same as to say, “I like the Network but don’t like the Internet.” Network not working without Internet. The blockchain does not exist without bitcoin.

The main merit of the bitcoin blockchain Casares sees what he freed people from the need to verify information contained in certain databases. The more work carried out to validate the data, the more confidence to the transaction, says Casares, referring to mining bitcoins.

The four banks blockchain is a database of four banks. This is nothing new. It’s actually not the blockchain. The blockchain is something where you should not have confidence in any of the parties.

As for predictions on the price of bitcoin, Casares calls everyone who gives them to speculators. However, he believes that if there is only one blockchain and it will become the standard, its value will rise. The chances of bitcoin’s success, he estimates 50%, and failure in 20%.

I think it’s an experiment and nobody knows how it will end. It will take a lot of time and a lot of what happens.

If bitcoin becomes the global standard and non-political measure of value, the world, according to Casares, changes made the biggest leap on the way to a democratization of money.

We will remind that else in June Casares claimed that the chances of bitcoin to reach $1 million per token in 10 years is 50% and a potential reward for waiting is so great that “it makes sense to buy and keep” him, because “even a small amount can change your life.”

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Kraken will limit the use in applications prices with decimals

Wednesday 30 August cryptofauna exchange Kraken introduces a limit on the use in applications prices with decimals. Thus, the exchange hopes to reduce the load on the platform and the number of refusals on applications that occur with a too small step in price, which indicates traders.

For each trade pair have their own limitations on the number of decimal places in price. So, for example for the pair XBT/USD — 2 characters. This means that the application can be made with the price of $4350,01but not $4350,001. Application with incorrect prices will be rejected.

The complete list of valid number of digits after the decimal point for all trading pairs:

  • BCH/XBT — 6
  • BCH/EUR 3
  • BCH/USD — 3
  • DASH/XBT — 6
  • DASH/EUR 3
  • DASH/USD — 3
  • EOS/XBT — 6
  • EOS/ETH — 6
  • ETC/XBT — 6
  • ETC/ETH — 6
  • ETC/EUR 4
  • ETC/USD — 4
  • ETH/XBT — 6
  • ETH/CAD 3
  • ETH/EUR 3
  • ETH/JPY — 1
  • ETH/USD — 3
  • GNO/XBT — 6
  • GNO/ETH — 6
  • ICN/XBT — 6
  • ICN/ETH — 6
  • LTC/XBT — 6
  • LTC/EUR 4
  • LTC/USD — 4
  • MLN/XBT — 6
  • MLN/ETH — 6
  • REP/XBT — 6
  • REP/ETH — 6
  • REP/EUR 4
  • USDT/USD — 4
  • XBT/CAD 2
  • XBT/EUR 2
  • XBT/JPY — 0
  • XBT/USD — 2
  • XDG/XBT — 8
  • XLM/XBT — 7
  • XMR/XBT — 6
  • XMR/EUR 4
  • XMR/USD — 4
  • XRP/XBT — 6
  • XRP/EUR 6
  • XRP/USD — 6
  • ZEC/XBT — 6
  • ZEC/EUR -3
  • ZEC/USD — 3

Earlier, Kraken is excluded from trading illiquid pairs 12 and 1-2 months have stopped accepting all pre-orders.

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Brewing giant increases the effectiveness of advertising using the blockchain

Brewing giant Anheuser-Busch InBev is implementing a project to improve the effectiveness of digital advertising by using blockchain technology.

The largest brewing company in the world began to conduct an advertising campaign through a mobile marketing app Kiip, which uses the Ethereum blockchain to record and track data. The project aims to maximize the coverage of each specific ad.

In the campaign, which started two weeks ago, involved five of the most popular brands of AB InBev — Budweiser, Bud Light, Michelob Ultra, Limeatrita and Estrellas.

The project is implemented on the basis of the new blockchain product from Kiip, which increases transparency and addresses the problem of fraud with mobile ads. Ensured that database of promotional campaigns available to all involved in the chain of sales of mobile ads.

The blockchain is coded various indicators, including the number of impressions, coverage and price, and AB InBev can track this data every hour. This approach reduces the time spent on the process. Buyers of advertising, in turn, have the opportunity to pay only for ads that meet their criteria.

In fact, the blockchain-project AB InBev represents the tracking of supply chains ads. This is one of the most common practical applications of DLT technology. For example, recently the Indian state of Kerala has started implementing a blockchain project to track the supply of everyday products. Over similar solutions in different spheres of work, companies such as Alibaba Australia, SAP, Unilever, and IBM.

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In Moscow the founders CryptoSharkClub will spend the Christmas cocktail party

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20 Dec CSHP CLUB will gather for their regular guests and leaders of the market of new technologies on the new year’s cocktail party. The event CSHP CLUB will talk about the success of the ten projects with which the club cooperated during the year.

In the official part of the meeting the participants of the flash mob #Cryptoуспехи2018 and guests of the club will share their success stories and plans for the year 2019.

Artist Cris.Om and her work СrystalShark

In the event, the organizers will present a few pieces of modern art created in the development of blockchain community. Guests will see the first canvas of a robot artist with artificial intelligence Gaka-Chu, triptych Jana Ladne «Satoshi is here?», and СrystalShark artist Cris.Om from the new collection 19W art&tech Assosiation of.

Triptych Jana Ladne «Satoshi is here?»

The club meeting will be held in an informal setting in the style of the 90s. following the event, released a report called «CRYPTO Successes 2018».

At the party there will also be a raffle among the guests.

Time: 20 December at 19:00.
Place: Moscow, Sadovaya-Chernogryazskaya 10, Castle restaurant Dish.

Admission to the event is available to members of the club. For new members available 20 tickets that can be purchased on the event page.

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Tim Draper invested in bitcoin processing OpenNode

The developers of cryptocurrency payment processing OpenNode announced the completion of a round of seed investment, which attracted a unnamed amount from the well-known venture capitalist Tim Draper and Draper Associates.

The project was launched in April 2018 by a group of developers of the bitcoin Protocol and Lightning Network, and aims to make easier the use of the first cryptocurrencies.

Raised funds team OpenNode plans to invest in the expansion of the state, further work on the product and a complete «gipervitaminozu».

According to CoinDesk, Tim Draper has invested in OpenNode $1.25 million

As the team says of the project, developed the processing service can be now connected merchants and companies that want to accept bitcoin as payment for their products and services. This can be done with a special plug-in or via API.

As payment for their services OpenNode will take a Commission of 1%, but the first month of service is free. Separately, emphasizes support protcol Lightning Network designed to provide instant and cheap bitcoin transactions.

In October, Tim Draper confirmed its previous forecast of about $250 000 for one bitcoin by 2022, but also said that to regulate the industry enough to write a one-page law, which will be spelled out only the registration process and launch of ICO projects.

He also said that in the future the global economy will make a turn to cryptocurrency, and that at the head of all these changes will be the bitcoin.


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Spencer Bogart: Bitcoin will reach $50 000

Partner of venture Capital company Blockchain and one of the leading bitcoin analysts on wall street Spencer Bogart (Bogart Spencer) in an interview with CNBC said that the current bearish sentiment in the stock market today are “fantastic buying opportunities”.

Stressing that the Blockchain is a long-term venture Capital investor, Bogart said with confidence that, in his opinion, the price of bitcoin could rise to $50 thousand, as it is not tied to profits or cost of capital, which set a kind of ceiling for young technology companies. However, when there will be such growth, the analyst can not say. In the short term, he sees the possibility of further price reduction to $2000 or $1000 per unit.

This sharp rise and fall of BTC Bogart explains the predominance in the market of private investors. But despite this “short-term weakness,” the fundamentals of the technology, in his opinion, remain relevant and moreover 2018 demonstrated success in scaling and implementing a more fast and inexpensive transactions using a Lightning Network. He also noted the positive aspects associated with interest in bitcoin among institutional investors the level of Yale and Harvard universities, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), etc., and also with the development of custody cryptoservice.

We will remind, the head and co-founder of the American FINTECH-Circle Jeremy Allaire (Jeremy Allaire) in an interview with CNBC also said that, in his opinion, in three years bitcoin will be worth much more than now. But the billionaire entrepreneur Calvin Ayr (Calvin Ayre) in an interview with Express, said that in 2019 the price of bitcoin could fall to zero.



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JPMorgan Chase: Institutional investors lose interest in the cryptocurrency market

Analysts of the Bank holding company JPMorgan Chase believe that the protracted bear market discourages institutional investors from crypto-currency assets, according to Bloomberg.

“The participation of financial institutions to trade bitcoin, apparently, is declining,” said analysts including a strategist on the world market Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou (Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou), in a research note.

They noted that “key indicators of the stream has declined,” and pay attention to the index of open items (OI) in the market of bitcoin futures. According to them on the Cboe this figure last month reached the lowest level since the start of open trading contracts a year ago. The same indicator CME “is near the bottom of its range in 2018”.

Blue line is the number of open positions on BTC-futures the Cboe white — on contracts CME. Source: Bloomberg

Experts JPMorgan Chase drew attention to the decline in the average size of a transaction for the cryptocurrency market with a $5000 year ago to $160. Analysts added that altcoins continue to “disproportionately suffer in this phase of correction”.

In addition, the Bank’s specialists mentioned the drop in profitability of mining bitcoins in the background of the market downturn. Can see the reduction of the complexity of the computing of bitcoin is forcing many miners to disable losing power.

“This speaks to the fact that prices fell to such an extent that mining becomes unprofitable for some miners, who responded by disabling their facilities,” wrote analysts.

Informed audit firm Big four firm KPMG came to the conclusion that for realizing the potential of cryptocurrency required the arrival on the market of institutional investors. This connects the future growth of the stock market and head of the Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd. Mike Novogratz (Mike Novogratz). He expressed confidence that institutionaly already lining up in anticipation of the start of trading Cryptoprotected on the grounds Bakkt and Fidelity in the next year. In October, Bloomberg experts noted the intensification of professional investors on the market OTC trading in bitcoin, experts of the company Diar confirmed this in their study.



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