Analytical Department ICBF shares DeCenter the latest news of cryptomeria, and also spoke about the key trends of the week.
The dynamics of the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies and the majority of its assets, more can be compared with the temperature fluctuations in the Northern hemisphere of our planet — the closer the coming of winter and the coming of the New year, the lower falls and the price of the leading crypto-assets. But as we wrote in the previous review, let’s not pay attention to external «noise» and calmly sort out the facts.
Market capitalization of crypto-currencies steadily falling and is approaching frightening to the value of $100 billion, although nearly 11 months ago, the peak value was set at $830 billion, and then it seemed that the market may roll down somewhere. But today we live in a complete opposite compared to last year’s situation.
A graph of the dynamics of capitalization of the stock market. Source.
Yet a clear explanation for why developing one of the most catastrophic scenarios in the market in addition to conspiracy theories large capital for the purchase of falling prices, it is difficult to provide. Constantly appear on the market news, able to lead prices up, however, cryptologist now more like paralyzed by fear of man.
The number of short positions in the market (transactions aimed at sale of the underlying asset) on the Bitfinex team continues to grow and at the time of writing the review already exceeds 39,800 against gradually decreasing the number of positions on the purchase of 26,900. Note that the absolute record was set at the level of 40,200 in August of this year. If this figure will be reached again or even overcome, the sellers may finally disappear the opportunity to push further the price down. This is another signal in the Treasury of the probability of imminent market reversal and recommendations not to follow actively current trend.
But it should be noted that we observed the situation is only the tip of the iceberg. When small investors are in a panic to close your position urgently take money in Fiat, and some even curse myself for dealing with the stock market, in this time of major capital follows the rule the most successful traders — «Buy on the low and on expectations, sell on fact».
Let us note that besides the traditional for many traders Bitfinex exchanges, Binance, OKEx, and others, there are more OTC platforms, for which there is a circulation of tens of thousands of bitcoins, sometimes in only one transaction. Agree, this is a substantial amount, which could crash the market or cause its dramatic rise. To avoid such volatility, there are platforms where traders with a large capital to trade safely.
To estimate the extent of this movement cannot be fully, but its effects can be analyzed. So, in early December began a phased purchase of capital one of the large purses, which has already managed to make transactions with bitcoins 608,000. That is, until some traders take losses and panic, the other at the time begin to buy a highly depreciating assets. This is a very good sign for those who with a cool head ready to assess the situation on the market.
Another interesting event can be considered the fact that started a transaction from the wallet that was active in 2014. By volume of concentrated funds in bitcoins he was in the top 20 wallets. This week, more than 66,000 units of the first cryptocurrency, which at the current exchange rate is about $257 million, were sent to unknown addresses, which are likely to belong to off-exchange markets OTC and the next day, a similar transaction was repeated 2 more times. In total almost 200,000 bitcoins were distributed in different locations and later combined again on the purses, which, according to unconfirmed reports, over-the-counter platform JuBTC. By the way, the Commission in each of these three major transactions averaged $48, well below the Bank for similar services.
Do not forget about the banking community that the words actively resists the advent of blockchain and cryptocurrency, and in fact is already trying to integrate this system. In addition to news last week about the launch of a netting blockchain-service CLSNet for netting of transactions in the cryptocurrency between the largest U.S. investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, you can also mention a recently performed experiment with securities purchased via the blockchain. So, Sberbank of Russia held a unique for the world of REPO transactions (the granting of financing against pledge of securities) using a blockchain to record transactions and smart contract that he entered into the transaction and filed documents in the Depository NSD to a mutual settlement. Another no less interesting news: the Swiss subsidiary of a Russian Bank Gazprombank (occupies the third place, the growth rate of assets in the rating of portal.ru) together with the company Metaco will create by the middle of 2019 tools for asset management Silo, which, in addition to traditional financial instruments in the form of shares, you can also keep crypto-assets on the wallets and make operations on them.
Another good news could be the approach of the SEC to «sentencing» by the very anticipated fall issue — to be or not to be the world’s first regulated bitcoin ETF. But because of the collapse of the exchange rate of the cryptocurrency, this issue has faded into the background, which was associated with the increased volatility of the underlying ETF of the asset and loss of stability due to massive sales. And again, the U.S. regulatory Agency decided to resume consideration of this subject, taking into account collected prior to the beginning of November more than 1500 expert opinions both in favor of launching a bitcoin ETF and against. The final date of the decision on this issue should be February 27, 2019. Just before this time can be obtained approval for priority applications from professional financial institutions VanEck, SolidX and exchange CBOE.
Recall that previously occurred several shifts review of this issue because of the uncertainty of the commissioners of the SEC in matters of the lack of manipulation and the strong volatility of the underlying asset the generated tool — bitcoin. And recently, their fears have been confirmed. Until the end of February next year, according to the rules the agencies must be given a clear answer «Yes» or «no» about the prospects for the start. If you receive a positive decision, it will be another reason for the growing optimism among investors towards bitcoin.
We maintain the relevance of long-term ideas about the possibility of a reversal bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the upcoming months, although it is necessary that they were obtained on the chart.
Preserving still the honorary first place in terms of capitalization, the cryptocurrency for this indicator is already below $60 billion, and after breaking through support in the area of consolidation $4150−$4500 rushed down to the first target of $3530, which was also confidently taken. Retain the relevance of the forecasts to reach values of $3200 and even collapse to the $2950−$3000−$3100. But from these values, the price may head up in December 2018 — early 2019, proof of which will be the output of the above cluster $5280−$6000. At the moment, better not to open new positions in the coming weeks and move closer profitable stop orders on previously open trades for sale. Now the best strategy is to do nothing!
Chart BTC/USDT, day timeframe. Source.
Altcoins and Ethereum
The air continued to decline after breaking a value of $100, which led to the achievement of our district goal of $76−$80. It seems unlikely the scenario with the continuation of the decline deep down, but as a potential target again previously submitted $54. Here also it is necessary to say that the brainchild of Vitalik Buterin may begin to pivot together with all the market in the coming months. Litecoin also successfully achieved goals in the areas of $27 and even the marks on the support of $24. The next target for collapse can be $20.
Schedule ETH/USD daily timeframe. Source.