Information on 17.12.2017 (results for the period from 01.07.2017)[i]
- Dmitry Kornilov, doctor of economic Sciences, academician of RANS, senior analyst ICOBox
- Dmitri Zaitsev, candidate of economic Sciences, head of international public relations and the Department of business analysts ICOBox
- Nikolay Evdokimov, co-founder of ICOBox
- Michael raitzin, co-founder of ICOBox
- Anar Babayev, co-founder of ICOBox
- Daria Generalova, co-founder of ICOBox
The study presents data on dynamics of changes on cryptocurrency market on the market of the ICO in the third and fourth quarter, but the main emphasis is on the analysis of the changes since the beginning of December 2017, including over the past week (11-17.12.2017).
1. A General analysis of the market of cryptocurrencies and assets (per week, month, quarter). Market dynamics
1.1. A General analysis of the market of cryptocurrencies and assets (week, month)
Table. 1.1. Dynamics of capitalization of the stock market and the major currencies with 01.11.2017, 17.12.2017 G.
In the period 1 to 17 December 2017, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies (Total Market Capitalization) increased by more than 270 billion U.S. dollars, with 305,1 to 579,5 billion USD (as of 17 Dec 2017 00:00 UTC; see table. 1.1).
In Fig. 1. represented as the expectation of the production market futures Bitcoin affected the change in total market capitalization.
The following is the analysis of changes in the demand for money 10 December 2017 before the start of futures trading on Bitcoin at located in Chicago exchange Cboe.
At 00:00 UTC 10.12.2017 G. capitalization of cryptocurrencies was 416,9 billion USD (see table. 1.1). Over the next four hours, the market capitalization fell by more than 50 billion U.S. dollars and 04:00 UTC amounted to 363,6 billion dollars (see Fig. 1), but during the day the market rebounded, and 00:00 UTC 11.12.2017 G. capitalization came back down to 411 billion U.S. dollars. In the days that followed saw a significant increase to 579,5 billion US dollars (in 17.12.2017 G. 00:00 UTC, see table. 1.1, Fig. 1).
Thus, over the past week (11-17.12.2017) the market capitalization has increased by approximately 160 billion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 70 billion US dollars was due to the Bitcoin market capitalization which grew from to 326,1 of 253.8 billion US dollars. The growth of capitalization altcoins for the week amounted to approximately 90 billion US dollars, it increased with up to 253,4 163,1 billion U.S. dollars.
For the period from 10 to 17 December courses Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin and Litecoin Cash increased by 28.4%, 47,3%, 28.4% and 93,9% respectively.
Last week there was an increase in almost all of the most important altcoins, except IOTA. It should be noted a significant increase in the capitalization of Litecoin and Cardano, who took fifth and sixth places in the list of cryptocurrencies on the level of capitalization. Thus, the course Litecoin in ten days (08-18.12.2017) rose from $98 to $300, i.e., more than three times (Fig. 2). Course Cardano, in turn, in just four days (14 to 18.12.2017) grew 4.5 times, from $0.13 to $0,59 (Fig. 3).
According to Cointelegraph, in the system Terminal Bloomberg added Ripple (XRP), Ethereum (ETH) and Litecoin (LTC), which allows users in real time analyze their financial performance. At the same time, banks of Japan and South Korea reported on the testing of payments based on blockchain technology Ripple (see table. 1.5). In the Ripple (XRP) per week (11-17.12.2017) have increased three times, from $0.25 to $0.75, and the rate of Ethereum (ETH) increased from $450 to $700.
The appearance on the stock market of new mechanisms of hedging risks of futures contracts, had a positive impact on its dynamics. However, the overall futures trading volume on Bitcoin to Сboe last week was insignificant compared to the total capitalization of the cryptocurrencies. In connection with this interest, how will this affect the bitcoin exchange rate is scheduled for 18 December start of futures trading in the world’s largest Mercantile exchange CME Group. In addition, there was news about the possible launch of futures contracts on Ethereum and Litecoin (see table. 1.5).
On the background of the events and the significant growth of the stock market almost unnoticed were two new hard forks: Super Bitcoin and ECIP 1017 (Fig. 4). On the project website Super Bitcoin it is noted that this hardwork is «experimental». Hardwork ECIP 1017 held in Ethereum Classic, and now, as expected, the total supply of cryptocurrency, thanks to the implementation of deflationary model of monetary policy will be reduced by 20 million units to 210 million.
Recall that the last hardwork Bitcoin, which appeared cryptocurrency Bitcoin Diamond, on 24 November.
The main reasons for the movements leading cryptocurrency over the past week are presented in table. 1.3.
Smith + Crown Index for the period increased significantly from 25 to 34 891 989.
To analyze the activity of trading on the crypto currency exchange is calculated the index of ZAK-n Crypto (see Glossary). Indices ZAK-4 Crypto and ZAK-8 Crypto is presented in table. 1.1, 1.2.and, 1.2.b. So, 14.12.2017, trading volume (Volume 24h) for the four dominant cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple) exceeded 26.7 billion U.S. dollars per day (table. 1.2.a). The index value of the ZAK-4 Crypto was 6.9%, which indicates a very high liquidity and dynamism of the market dominant cryptocurrency.
Table. 1.2.. Daily calculation of the index ZAK-4 Crypto (c 01.12.2017, 17.12.2017)
Trading volumes 24 hour (24h Volume) for the eight dominant cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Litecoin, Dash, IOTA, Cardano) at the end of last week amounted to 20.4 bln US $ (see table 1.2.b), i.e. 4.1% of their market capitalization. More indexes ZAK-4 Crypto and ZAK-8 Crypto considered in the table. 1.2.and 1.2.b.
Table. 1.2.b. Daily calculation of the index ZAK-8 Crypto (extension table 1.2.a)
In table. 1.3 presents the key events of the week (11-17.12.2017), influenced the course of the dominant cryptocurrency and the stock market in General, indicating the nature and extent of their influence.
Table. 1.3. Key events of the week that influenced the course of cryptocurrency 11-17 December 2017
High trading activity (Volume 24h) relative to market capitalization contributes to the volatility of the cryptocurrency market, which can lead to sharp changes in their prices.
The following is an analysis of daily changes in exchange rates of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash since the beginning of December (table. 1.4.a,b,C).
Table. 1.4.. Daily dynamics of exchange rate, trading volume (Volume 24h) and capitalization of the Bitcoin (BTC) to US dollar (c 01.12.2017, 17.12.2017)
Table. 1.4.b. Daily dynamics of exchange rate, trading volume (Volume 24h) and capitalization of Ethereum (ETH) in relation to the U.S. dollar (c 01.12.2017, 17.12.2017)
17.12.2017, the course of Bitcoin first exceeded $20 000.
Since the beginning of December (01-17.12.2017) the rate of Bitcoin has increased from $10 198,60 to $19 140,80, Ethereum and the price rose from $445,21 to $719,98 (table. 1.4.a,b). Thus the highest rate as Bitcoin ($20 089) and Ethereum ($735,80) was recorded 17.12.2017 g. the Greatest daily fluctuation (Range) of courses Bitcoin ($4 016,50) and Ethereum ($152,80) was observed 08.12.2017 and 12.12.2017, respectively. Thus, courses Bitcoin and Ethereum from the beginning of 2017 grew by 19.17 and 88,12 (see table. 1.4.a,b).
Dynamics of prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin and Cash Ripple (top-4 of cryptocurrency by capitalization) to December 2017 are presented in Fig. 5, 6, 7, 8.
According to the data shown in Fig. 5, 6, 7, 8, intensive growth of the Bitcoin exchange rate on December 6-7, was accompanied by lower rates of Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash, and the Bitcoin exchange rate correction that took place on December 8 led to a rise in prices Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash. After 11.12.2017 for 2-4 days was an intensive growth rate of the cryptocurrency is presented, and then its correction.
Table. 1.4.in. Daily dynamics of exchange rate, trading volume (Volume 24h) and capitalization of the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) in relation to the U.S. dollar (c 01.12.2017, 17.12.2017)
The General index of the change Bitcoin to Cash August 1, 2017 amounted to 4.9 (the base of the calculation of the adopted rate of $380 at the end of the day 01.08.2017 g), i.e. for the period after hard forks of Bitcoin and new Bitcoin Cash its rate increased by 390%, while the growth rate occurred from the beginning of November. In December, the rate was changed in the range of $1 226,20 to $1 939,90. Now Bitcoin Cash occupies the third position in terms of capitalization, equal to 30.5 billion U.S. dollars.
In table. 1.5 presents a list of events, information about which appeared last week and which can affect the certain cryptocurrency and the market in General.
Table. 1.5. Events that can affect the course of cryptocurrencies in the future
1.2. Market dynamics
Weekly dynamics of the market of cryptocurrencies and assets 02.07.2017, 17.12.2017. presented in the form of diagrams (Fig. 1.1-1.5)*.
Table. 1.6. Symbols and characteristics of the charts
In Fig. Figure 1.1 shows the weekly changes in the cryptocurrency market with 02.07.2017, 17.12.2017 During this period, market capitalization grew from 94,7 to 590,2 billion US dollars and in relation to the beginning of the year the growth was 3 234%. Over the past week (11-17.12.2017) total market capitalization increased from 383 billion U.S. dollars to 590,2 billion USD (as of 17.12.2017).
Despite the substantial increase in the market capitalization of crypto-currencies for the third quarter of 2017 and for the year overall, the market is subject to sharp fluctuations. A significant reduction was observed at week 09-16.07.2017 (-28%) and in the first two weeks of September (03-10.09 and 11-17.09.2017), by 25.2 billion US dollars (-15,1%) and 20.8 billion USD (-15%) respectively. The highest growth in the third quarter was 39% (16-23.07.2017).
Three weeks in a row weekly market capitalisation amounted to about 50 billion U.S. dollars (19.11.2017 to 10.12.2017). Over the past week (11-17.12.2017) total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies increased to a record 207,1 billion US dollars or 54% (including average data per day).
The total number of types of cryptocurrencies and scriptactive on the stock exchange since July has increased from 881 to 1 325. Only for last week their number has increased by 51 1 274 1 325. At the same time for the analyzed period, the average market capitalization of cryptocurrencies and scriptactive increased from 300,6 to 445,4 million dollars.
In the four weeks of October (01-29.10.2017) the cryptocurrency market grew by 23 billion dollars, from 147 to 170 billion US dollars over the next four weeks (30.10-.26.11.2017) it reached 283 billion US dollars, i.e. has increased by 113 billion dollars. For the first two weeks of December (27.11-10.12.2017 g), it increased by another 100 billion U.S. dollars, up to 383 billion US dollars (average value on 10.12.2017).
Last week (11-17.12.2017) was characterized by very significant growth of the market of 54%, with most of the increase was due to the altcoins. The share of Bitcoin during this time decreased from 60.9% to 56.3%.
In General, the stock market has grown significantly, its market capitalization since the beginning of the year increased 33%, from 17.7 to 590,2 billion US dollars (17.12.2017).
2. General market analysis ICO (week, month)
2.1. Market overview, news for the week
- Against the founders of the project Tezos filed another class action
- Class-Action Suit Targets the ICO Promoted By Floyd Mayweather, Jr.
- Kik goes on with Ethereum Stellar
- Kickstarter ICO? Don’t Count On It Says Crowdfunding Leader
- Mexican Authorities Call ICOs Illegal, Risky Cryptocurrencies
- On Indiegogo you can now run ICO
- Your Utility Token ICO Is Probably a Securities Offering: SEC Chairman
2.2. Aggregated indicators of the dynamics and efficiency of the market the past (completed, ompleted) ICO
To assess the dynamics and efficiency of the market is successfully finished and/or released to the stock exchange ICO offers a set of tools (see table. 2.1).
Table. 2.1. Tools to assess the efficiency of the market is successfully finished and/or released to the stock exchange ICO
Table. 2.2. Aggregated indicators of the dynamics and efficiency of the market the past (completed Completed) ICO4
The data from the beginning of December (01-10.12.2017) adjusted to reflect the appearance of more complete information on revised ICO. In the end, the total amount of attracted funds amounted to is 304.2 million US dollars. Last week (11-17.12.2017) the amounts of fees by the ICO amounted 345,9 million dollars. This amount consists of the results of 18 completed the most successful ICO, the greatest amount of fees amounted to approximately 60 million U.S. dollars (ICO Nebulas). Average borrowed funds for one project are equal to 19.2 billion U.S. dollars. More detailed data on 18 major ICO the last week are presented in table. 2.5.
2.3. Aggregated indicators to assess the market for existing and planned (Active, Planned) ICO
Table. 2.3. Aggregated indicators to assess the market for existing and planned (Active, Planned) ICO
The number of projects engaged in (Active) ICO is 17.12.2017 G. 269. At the moment there is information about at least 267 ICO scheduled after 17.12.2017 year, of which next week is planned the beginning of carrying out at least 10 ICO.
2.4. Quantitative analysis of the market ICO
1. The amount of attracted funds and the number of ICO
Table. 2.4. The amount of attracted funds and the number of ICO
Table. 2.4 shows that the largest number of funds was drawn by the ICO in June 2017. In the same month, the average number of funds (Average funds collected) one ICO made up of 33.17 million dollars.
Data over the past week (11-17.12.2017) may be subject to adjustment as information on fees completed ICO will be revised.
2. Top ICO
Table. 2.5. Top 18 ICO on volume of attracted funds (11.12-17.12.2017)
In table. 2.5 presents the top-18 successfully completed ICO for the past week (11-17.12.2017). The leader was a project Nebulas, which is a decentralized search platform for blockchain. ICO built on the principles of value of information, self-development and stimulation, in addition, the project will be implemented and traditional instruments: smart contracts, domain name system, purses, etc.
In Fig. 2.2 ten largest ICO, culminating in last week of December 2017.
3. Top ICO in separate categories
The ICO list of top categories based on the categories of ICO leaders weeks.
Table. 2.6. Top 10 ICO on volume of attracted funds in the category Infrastructure
In table. 2.6 presents the top 10 ICO in the category of Infrastructure. Almost all of these projects were implemented in 2017. The largest value in terms of «Efficiency» (Token Performance), i.e. the best relation Price Current Token to the Token Sale Price is 8,53 x belongs to the ICO and EOS. Its market capitalization currently amounts to more than 4.6 billion U.S. dollars.
The ratings of ICO in the categories of Finance and Gaming & VR are presented below.
Table. 2.7. Top 10 ICO on volume of attracted funds in the category Finance
At the moment in the category Finance in terms of «Efficiency» (Token Performance), all projects of the top 10 have values from 1x to 6.8 X. One of the most successful ICO in terms of attracted funds and the process of going public can be considered KyberNetwork project, because this project has a relationship to the Current Token Price of Token Sale Price is 6.8 x. When considering this indicator should take into account the timing of completion of ICO KyberNetwork (15.09.2017 g), i.e. growth of 6.8% occurred in approximately 3 months, and market capitalization KyberNetwork currently exceeded 370 million US dollars.
Table. 2.8. Top 10 ICO on volume of attracted funds in the category Gaming & VR
In table. 2.8 presents the top 10 ICO in the category Gaming & VR. Half of the presented projects is selling tokens on cryptomeria. The capitalization of the category leader by volume of attracted funds ICO, project, MobileGO is currently 65.5 million US dollars.
During last period (from 11 to 17.12.2017) ICO has successfully completed 18 projects, each of which attracted more than 100 thousand U.S. dollars, the total amount of attracted funds amounted to no less than 345,9 million dollars. Leader of the week was the Nebulas project (60 million USD). The volume of funds for a number of ICO has not reached the level of 100 thousand USD (for individual project details to be confirmed).
|Initial coin offering, ICO (initial coin offer, initial placement of coins)
||Form of collective support for innovative technological projects, a variety of sales and attract new supporters through the primary offer coins for future holders in the form of a blockchain-based cryptocurrency (tokens) and scriptaction.
|Market capitalization (Rwalking down market capitalization )
||The value of the object calculated based on the current market (stock) prices. It is a financial measure used to evaluate total cost of market-based instruments, actors and markets. [Source: https://ru.wikipedia.org].
|Cryptocurrency market capitalization as
||Total market value traded in the cryptocurrency market.
|Total cryptocurrency market capitalization as
||Market capitalization of crypto-currencies and assets, i.e. the total market value of traded cryptocurrencies and assets.
||The effectiveness of token (current token price of / the price of a token at the time of the ICO), i.e. the reward of one dollar invested in the token.
||Market share, i.e. the ratio of the capitalization of cryptocurrencies (the token) to total market capitalization. Expressed as a percentage.
|Token sale price
Current token price
|The price of a token at the time of the ICO.
The current price of a token.
|The coin is not manitsa (from the English. mining). Refers to a crypto currency (tokens) which have no function hashing or not produced in the mining process.
||Remaininga coin. Refers to a crypto currency (tokens) which are produced in the mining process, but a certain amount of coins (tokens) was created and distributed to defined users when the project starts.
|The rate of market increase (in % to the beginning of the year)
||The growth rate of market (% YTD), i.e. how much % of the market capitalization increased relative to the beginning of the year.
|The growth rate of the market (in % to the beginning of the year)
||The market growth rate (% YTD), i.e. how many times has changed the market capitalization relative to the beginning of the year.
|Increase in market capitalization (in million USD compared to previous period)
||The increase rynochnoi capitalization of cryptocurrencies and assets (in millions of U.S. dollars the previous period), i.e., how many million dollars of change in the market capitalization for the period.
|The rate of market increase (in % compared to previous period)
||The growth rate of the market (in % to previous period), i.e. how much % the market capitalization has increased over the period.
|The market growth rate (in % compared to previous period)
||The market growth rate (in % to previous period), i.e. how many times the increased market capitalization relative to previous period.
|Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets
||The number of crypto-currencies and assets. At the time of formation of the Glossary of the market turned more than 1070 species of crypto-currencies and assets.
|Average market capitalization as
||The average market capitalization, i.e. the ratio of market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies and assets to their number.
||Indicator of the effectiveness of funds spent on the purchase of tokens, or the ratio of the current price of the token and the sale price of the token, i.e. the efficiency of investment of one dollar in tokens at the stage of sale of tokens, with their subsequent sale on the crypto currency exchange for US dollars.
|ETH reward – current dollar value of $1 spent on buying tokens during the token sale
||An alternative indicator of the effectiveness of funds spent on the purchase of tokens in the period of the ICO, or the ratio of the current rate of ETH to his course at the beginning of the sale of token-ICO, ie if one dollar were not invested in the ICO and at ETH in his course at the beginning of the sale of tokens, and then sold at the current rate of ETH.
|BTC reward– current dollar value of $1 spent on buying tokens during the token sale
||Similar to the previous: an Alternative indicator of the effectiveness of funds spent on the purchase of tokens in the period of the ICO, if one dollar was invested in BTC at the exchange rate at the beginning of ICO, and then sold at the current rate BTC.
||The ratio of economic benefits/losses of the market participant in connection with the purchase of tokens at the stage of the ICO to the possible investment in ETH. If the value is > 1, then the market participant has achieved greater effectiveness of investments spent on tokens than if he invested in bitcoin ETH.
||The ratio of economic benefits/losses of the market participant in connection with the purchase of tokens at the stage of the ICO to the possibility of investing in BTC. If the value is > 1, then the market participant has achieved greater effectiveness of investments spent on tokens than if it invested in cryptocurrency BTC.
|ZAK-n Crypto index
||The index is calculated as a percentage and represents the ratio of the volume of trades (deals) at cryptocurrency exchange per day (24h Volume) at the n dominant cryptocurrency to the sum of their market capitalization.
When calculating the index, ZAK-4 Crypto takes into account four dominant cryptocurrency with the highest market capitalization – Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin and Ripple Cash.
When calculating the index ZAK-8 Crypto takes into account the trading volume and market capitalization of eight of cryptocurrency: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Litecoin, DASH, Cardano and IOTA.
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