For 2018 was not more losing weeks for the stock market than the previous one. Sunday, November 25, bitcoin exchange rate has updated its 12-month low, dropping to $3838, and losing a week over 26%. For bitcoin was followed by other coins: ether dropped to $115, losing their place in the market. The second capitalization of the coin was the ripple, which is trading at $0.37. And the total capitalization of caporino dropped by $57 billion. In the current situation, many market players started to panic, while others have found in it opportunities for earnings. DeCenter found out what they are doing during the current drop traders and large investors, and what is the forecast by leading analysts.
For the second consecutive week, the cryptocurrency market is in a state of collapse. November 19 presenter Cryptotrader on the CNBC Ran Neuner said extremely pessimistic mood among the players of the stock market:
Today for the first time since the beginning of this bear market I have seen people surrender, admit defeat, ridiculing the community and technology, and promising never to touch the cryptocurrency. Even the bravest has been silenced…
Proved him and other members of cryptodira, who lost an impressive investment over the last week. Thus, according to the news portal Bitcoin.com one of the English-speaking users of the anonymous web forum 4chan got rid of all my crypto investments and encouraged others to do likewise: «This is the end, I sold everything. And I’m free. I got out of that damn hell Scam… at First it was fun, but now it’s more like a cruel joke. I bought bitcoin at $15,000. Not one person can easily observe how his money evaporate right before his eyes. You all know that it goes to $3000, right?… Let’s stop pretending that the market is anything but bearish trend until 2020».
Mass selling of digital assets traders also had an impact on the long-term holders of bitcoin who invested in the first cryptocurrency in early 2017. This is evidenced by cryptocurrency trading firm Genesis. The head of the company Michael Moreau notes that the investors who bought the bitcoin at the beginning of last year for the first time began to sell their assets, approaching its base value when buying. So, investors who in the first quarter of 2017 bought a bitcoin for $900−$1300, saw its explosive growth, which at the peak of noted historical high of $19,783. However, the current situation on the market gives them hope that soon something will change a lot.
In an interview with the American Forbes cryptotriton and investor in the digital currency known as Aldon, Tero (Altcoin Thoreau), also noted that there is no indication that the bear market coming to an end: «the Price indicates that the trend was on the decline after 2017, when the cryptocurrency was at its peak. Despite the fact that the current state of the market largely differs from the parabolic pattern of bitcoin, which we saw in 2013, we can safely say that the trend reversal will take some time. Last bear market lasted more than 600 days, and the current, at the time of writing this article is only 344 at the bottom.»
This is evidenced by the well-known crypto-analyst and founder Woobull.com Willie Wu, according to which currently bottom of bitcoin is only beginning and the end the bear market will not come until the second quarter of 2019: «Recent data obtained from our blockchain and macro-market indicators, are still relevant. Changed the indicator NVTS, which broke its support, which is a signal to sell. All our blockchain indicators point to bearish trend. NVT, NVTS, MVRV, BNM, NVM. Of course, they are experimental, but they still gave very accurate predictions, even when the traditional stock indicators said otherwise. While some catalyst will not affect the change in trend, we will see a bear market until mid-2019».
According to Wu, until the end of the bearish trend of bitcoin either capitulate, or will trade sideways. As for altcoins, market players will be their pumpit. A large part profits from trading Althingi will be sent to the bitcoin, which by that time will reach its bottom and be ready to start an uptrend that will last until the next lower rewards per block in 2020.
The head of the American Civic startups and well-known counselor in the crypto industry Winnie Lingam gives a conservative estimate for the stock market. Like many other players, the expert does not think that bitcoin will breach the level of $6000 before the end of 2018. According to the analysis of crypto-analyst Murad Makhmudov, bitcoin is in a long term descending triangle.
So, if current market trends continue, the first cryptocurrency strikes the bottom, having gone below $3000 before the end of 2018.
The lower limit at $3000 not beyond probability, provided that a pattern of descending triangle comes to end.
About the possible level of support for bitcoin at $3000 and says chief analyst social trading platform, eToro’s Mati Greenspan: «we can’t say for sure. Now bitcoin has broken the key psychological level of $5000, which means that the next logical support level which we will see in the graphs will be $3000. However, it is not necessary, and if now a reversal takes place, it will definitely be the signal for a bullish trend.»
Specialist in technical analysis from the company Cracked the Market Yani Sedins also sees the lower limit of the exchange rate of bitcoin at $3500, after which the market will begin to rehabilitate himself: «it is possible that a rebound will occur in the neighborhood of $3500 and return rate of up to $5,000. Of course, now it doesn’t sound like a big change, given the current fall in prices, but the return from $3,500 to $5,000 — almost a 50% return within a few days of work.»
Traditionally with follow bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. So, last week the majority of cryptocurrencies, with the exception of tablconv, including the ether, bitcoin, cash, litecoin and ripple have lost from 10% to 40% of the last value.
It is noteworthy that the data kollebaniya not very concerned institutional investors. It says the head of Department on work with digital assets VanECK gábor Gurbax. In an interview with the American Forbes Gurbax said that large investors are not afraid of the exchange rate of bitcoin to $3000, however, as in $10,000. They are more interested in infrastructure and growth rates that make this sector highly attractive for investment: «Large financial institutions focus more on the proper structure of the market than on short-term price kolebaniyakh. How to calculate the cost of a digital asset? How to ensure safe storage? Will they available crypto-ETF with a correct structure of the market and how to protect their investments? For the most part, large financial institutions don’t care if bitcoin will finish 2019 at around $3000 or $10,000. I see that the structure of the market is improving every day and becomes more like a commodity market or stock market».
However, over the last two weeks dramatically increased the interest of large investors to bitcoin futures trading platforms, owned by CME and CBOE. Futures allow you to play against bitcoin profit from a falling market cryptocurrency. According to Bloomberg, Monday, November 19, total open positions in futures on bitcoin rose to 22,266 — it is a historical maximum.
It is obvious that not all market players see the current situation, only losses. As noted by Mati Greenspan, despite the current collapse, the market of digital assets are not lost its appeal for some investors:
It is definitely a demand!
Now the most interesting for investors have bitcoin and ripple. This is evidenced by eToro, which stipulate that clients trading platforms have increased their contributions to these coins.
Clients @etoro took advantage of the collapse in the price of bitcoin to replenish their stocks. The red circle marks a small but obvious increase in assets, since November 14.
Moreover, Greenspan believes that now the market goes alarmists and weak: «Many capturadora happy to continue hadlich, even at such a low price. I assume that also large financial institutions find the current prices very attractive for buying».
A similar opinion was shared by the founder of the Super Margin Armen Gevorgyan during a panel discussion at the international blockchain Crypto conference Event RIW. The entrepreneur believes that institutional investors now invest in digital assets, but do it gradually and in small portions.