Analyst Willy Wu is developing a new statistical model, which, according to him, is able to suggest when to begin another bullish ascent on the market of bitcoin.
Under the proposed vu indicator, such was the situation of the market in the first quarter of 2020. The March collapse, which Wu describes as the «white Swan», «finished party».
In the developed risk Manager Nassim Taleb’s theory of «black Swan» by «white Swan» means an event that has serious economic consequences, but predictable from the perspective of probabilities. Taleb calls himself a pandemic coronavirus «white Swan» as it could have been prevented, whereas «black» refers, for example, the events of 11 September.
However, Wu said that the proposed model once again signals the beginning of a new bullish rise, which may remain one or two months. The analyst also gives another graph, clearly indicating that the March market collapse was «in conflict with the statistical model release».
«The longer is the run of the bull market, the higher will be the peak price. Long period oscillations between the lines of accumulation – it is, ultimately, a good sign,» he adds.
At the same time, many analysts agree that now is the primary determinant of market direction bitcoin is the stock market. This model is based on technical analysis of market behavior of cryptocurrency in the past, fade into the background.
The price of bitcoin over the last week dropped to 3% for the first time since mid-June were below $9 000. The American stock index S&P 500 lost the same 3%.