Bitcoin will be traded in the range of $6,000 to $10,000 before the end of the year and will retain a strong dependence on the leading American index S&P 500, said the well-known Trader Tone Weiss in a review on their Yotube channel. He also admitted that the price of the coin may soon fall to $7000. The reason is the RSI indicator broke its uptrend, it may indicate the interception of the initiative from the seller.
However, not all share this opinion. For example, the head of analytical service CryptoQuant Ki young Joo had previously urged to buy bitcoin, as it can advance the phase of the rally in mid-July. The positive Outlook was also announced by the billionaire and the head of the Galaxy Mike Novogratz. According to him, the price of the coin, breaking the level of $10,000 will continue to rise to $14 000 and then to $20,000.
RBC Crypto learn from the experts what to expect from the price of bitcoin before end of the year, in which case it will grow and what may hamper this.
What speaks in favor of growth
In March, the price of bitcoin fell to $3800 in two days, dropping more than 50%. Despite this, the rate of coins recovered, and now it costs $9200. Since January, the value of the asset has risen by 27%, and in the second half it will continue to grow, says a leading analyst 8848 Invest Viktor Pershikov. In his opinion, the rate of coins could increase to $14 000 by the end of the year, and there are several reasons.
«In the second half of 2020, I expect the continued increase in the price of BTC to $14 000. Start the recovery after the March collapse is obviously accompanied by an increase in the volume of purchases of bitcoin by larger market participants, which, according to the latest reports, analytical companies, a large volume of withdrawn BTC from the exchanges. This indicates a desire to holdit asset», — said the Pershikov.
He added that the fundamental prerequisites for growth also includes the recent halving who has not yet had a full effect on the price of BTC. Another factor is the continued demand for defensive assets taking into account the risks of the second wave COVID-19, which could come in the coming months.
In the beginning of the crisis the price of bitcoin grew and fell along with the quotes of the S&P 500 index. Then, in may-April this dependence disappeared. However, the cryptocurrency began to repeat the movements of the stock market, the index of correlation in time rose to 90%.
Writer believes that may weaken dependence of bitcoin from S&P 500 index. Moreover, there is a likelihood of re-decline in the stock market because of the risk of a new pandemic, which is a positive factor for captainvalor. If the stock starts to fall, the rate of BTC can show the opposite trend.
The downside risk persists
Partly Pershikov has agreed to head the analytical Department AMarkets Artem Deev. According to him, the rate of the main digital coins could rise to $11,000 by year-end. However, this will only happen if the pandemic coronavirus in the world will go on the positive scenario. Otherwise, a possible new recession, and then the coin can fall up to $6000.
«Spring quotes coins collapsed following the stock markets, commodities and shares of leading companies. Now, the market showed cautious optimism and bitcoin (and other assets) is growing, and today the coin is trading slightly above $9 thousand In the horizon before the end of summer bitcoin could exceed $10 million, and by the end of the year $11 thousand But it is the positive for the coronavirus in the world. If you start the second wave of the pandemic — the value of bitcoin could drop to $6-7 thousand, crashing together with other assets and Fiat currencies,» Deev suggested.
A similar opinion was voiced by IAC analyst «Alpari» Vladislav Antonov. According to his forecasts, the price of bitcoin may rise to $11 500-12 500 by year-end. However, this scenario is likely only if we manage to avoid a new wave of infections Covid-19. Otherwise, the course of bitcoin may fall following the S&P 500 index.
«The future of bitcoin is uncertain, as S&P 500. The index has a strong connection with news of the spread of coronavirus and programmes by Central banks to stimulate the economy. If it will not hold above 2990 points, bitcoin is at risk of falling behind him to $8500. If the pandemic starts to decline and will be able to avoid the second wave, then there is every reason to consider the strengthening of bitcoin to $11500-12500», — said Antonov.
He explained that the close connection of bitcoin with S&P 500 increases during the fall in the stock market. In 2019, the coin was a high correlation when the index was in a bull market. With the growth of the index value and a trade war between the US and China BTC even acted protective asset. Probably for rally cryptocurrencies need a steady growth of stock indices. But in the case of decline, BTC will also be cheaper because it is a risky asset.
Growth likely, but the pandemic could prevent
Analysts agreed that the price of bitcoin to continue to rise by year-end. Possible growth to $11 000-14 000. However, such a scenario is possible only in case if the world will be able to defeat the pandemic coronavirus and to prevent a new wave of infections. Otherwise there is a risk of a new fall in the stock market, which may accordingly affect the price of the cryptocurrency. At the same time, it is believed that digital assets, on the contrary, will benefit from the worsening of the crisis.
In early June, Bloomberg released a report that predicted a rise in price of bitcoin to $20,000 in the current year. This will happen if the course of the coins will repeat the movement 2016, when its network took place on the second halving.