Bitcoin at $4000 or $1 000 000? Why is it so different forecasts of the price of the cryptocurrency

Industry media and social media abound with predictions of the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Some experts rely on fundamental analysis, other on technical factors or market sentiment.

Bitcoin maximalists common belief in the cloudless future of the market, and the supporters of state regulation, stock markets, banks and other «traditional values» often make predictions downward, or even predict the collapse of the entire industry.

It is not surprising that the predictions are radically different from each other, because how many people — so many opinions. But how to navigate this endless stream of predictions and who to believe?

ForkLog magazine offers readers an overview of the most interesting predictions of bitcoin prices from the well-known market experts.

Bitcoin optimists: from $10 000 to $1 000 000

$1 000 000

Let’s start the review with the most optimistic-minded bitcoin enthusiasts. Perhaps the most extravagant forecast more than two years ago did the founder of McAfee Security John McAfee. He promised to «eat his penis on TV» if by the end of 2020 BTC will not be worth $500 thousand.

A few months later, he has dramatically raised the stakes, setting a target level of $1 million In October this year, the owner finally explained his confidence in such a bold forecast:

«Recognize the obvious — there are only 21 million bitcoins. Seven of which are lost forever, and if Satoshi is dead, add a few million»

He is confident that the first cryptocurrency will account for 5% of global financial transactions, and even more. Based on the available number of coins, the bitcoin will be worth $10 million, according to McAfee. Check the end of 2020.

$500 000 — $ 1 000 000

Very bright prospects draws and former CEO of the oldest Chinese crypto currency exchange BTCC Bobby Lee. Recently, he expressed confidence that by 2028 the price of bitcoin will reach $500 thousand.

Lee compares the first cryptocurrency with gold, a market which is about $8 trillion. According to him, for 9 years the price of BTC will overcome the mark of $500,000, as a result, the bitcoin will surpass gold market capitalization.

However, Lee is confident that the growth of bitcoin will stop.

«Given the global scale of what is happening today by printing money, the price of BTC is likely to overcome a mark in $1 million», — said the expert.

In addition to the macroeconomic component, Bobby Lee justifies his forecast of a deflationary nature of bitcoin. So, BTC is becoming more scarce after each Polovinnaya to reduce emissions and, therefore, inflation.

«Bitcoin was designed to be supertennis over time, shares his thoughts on Whether. — By 2020, the daily emissions amounted to only about ~255 BTC, annual inflation will be less than 0.5%. Devicetree gold!»

$500 000

The head of the leading provider cryptocell Blockchain’s Peter Smith in April of 2017 made the prediction that bitcoin can reach prices of $500,000 by 2030. It is noteworthy that at the time BTC was trading at around $1200.

According to Smith, the main drivers of growth in the prices of digital gold in the coming years will be:

  • Cross-border payments, the share of bitcoin will skyrocket.
  • The uncertainty in the global economy, boosting interest in liquid, easy to use and transportation alternative assets.
  • The spread of mobile communications, making every smartphone owner will be «Bank in the pocket».

Also the head of the Blockchain I am sure that in 2030, the market capitalization of bitcoin of $10 trillion (the product of the number of users of BTC on the average value stored their coins).

The bitcoin price forecast for 2030 is calculated as the quotient of the projected market capitalization «digital gold» and unchanged sentences mined cryptocurrencies ($10 trillion: $20 million = $500 000).

$250 000

Also very optimistic venture investor and early follower of bitcoin Tim Draper.

In his opinion, digital gold will reach $250 000 in the first quarter of 2023. However, previously, it was suggested that this mark will be reached in 2022.

Draper genuinely believe that bitcoin is a safe haven asset in periods of turbulence in traditional markets. Also, the investor is confident that within five years the BTC will replace Fiat currency. According to him, every year, the cryptocurrency will become more convenient instrument for payments and investments due to high transaction speed and low fees.

$150 000

Trader and cryptanalyst Josh Rager came to the conclusion that the trajectory of bitcoin prices is broadly similar to that observed in 2015.

In April of this year, the Rager is hypothesized that the accumulation phase will end in July. In his opinion, to start a bullish rally, the price should break through the resistance of the 100-week moving average (MA).

However, soon after his assumption of the bitcoin began to grow, and in June the asset price reached an annual high at $13 880 (exchange Bitstamp).

The daily chart of BTC/USD from TradingView

Thus, the accumulation phase ended much earlier, but the rise did not last long — in late June began a rapid decline with periodic «jumps of a dead cat».

On the weekly chart it is clear that 100 MA was indeed broken on the background of a very strong movement, supported by volumes:

Graph of BTC/USD from TradingView

However, the breakdown occurred in may, i.e., somewhat earlier forecast. Also, you can see that later the price has repeatedly re-tested the 100 MA.

In General, the Rager I am sure that the coming phase of the bullish cycle of bitcoin will be completed in 2023 at $150 000.

Also, the analyst believes that after 2021 the majority of investors can not buy more than 1 BTC because of high prices the first cryptocurrency.

$100 000

The head of the Fund managing digital assets Digital Morgan Creek with mark Yusko sure that bitcoin will be able to easily take off to a level of $50-100 thousand already over the next two years.

His belief in an impending violent rally BTC it is based on the law of Metcalf.

«If you think about the growth of the network from the point of view of the law of Metcalf, it is possible to detect that the price can easily be between $50 000 and $100 000 somewhere in 2020 or 2021. This is a rather broad range, but it seems to me that the main difficulty in forecasting prices is that it does not reflect the true value,» said Yusko.

He also stressed that the new rally will be due to the emergence of a large number of speculators who want to become market participants, and network effect.

Also this summer, mentioned the mark of $100,000 U.S. bitcoin exchange Kraken, Jesse Powell. However, he believes that this is not the limit, and over time, the price of BTC will reach one million dollars.

$90 000

A large German Bank Bayerische Landesbank (BayernLB) has published a study according to which in 2020 the price of bitcoin may reach $90 000.

The study is based on the ratio of reserves to increase, corresponding to the models of Safedin Amusa and popular Analytics Plan B. the financial institution are convinced that bitcoin is similar to gold. In this case, after halving 2020 asset will show an identical ratio of reserves to increase.

$60 000 — $100 000

Analyst online broker ThinkMarkets Naeem Aslam I am sure that in the course of the next bullish rally price of bitcoin will conquer new peaks in the range of $60 000 — $100 000. He is convinced that in the long term, the less important price milestones for BTC are $20 000 and $50 000.

The expert believes that the main drivers of growth of bitcoin is the involvement of institutional investors, a trade war between the US and China, as well as the uncertainty of the stock market and the risks of a new military conflict in the middle East.

$50 000 — $100 000

A somewhat more conservative forecast at the legendary trader and analyst Peter Brandt. He is confident that bitcoin is able to reach $50 000, and in the long term — $100 000.

However, before such an impressive growth of digital gold will experience a drop to $5500 and possibly even to $3905. The first goal can be achieved in July next year.

According to Brandt, around bitcoin so far too many unwarranted optimism:

«First, the bulls need to completely destroy. When there will be bulls on Twitter, then we’ll get a good buy signal».

As an advocate of technical analysis, the expert believes that currently, the bitcoin is part of the fourth phase of parabolic growth, which will lead the asset to around $100 000.

Phase of the market by Brandt

«No other market in my 45 years of trading look at a logarithmic chart in a similar way. Bitcoin is a market like no other», — said Brandt.

$50 000

In April of this year, the head of the largest cryptodermatinae exchange BitMEX , Arthur Hayes expressed confidence that within 2-5 years the price of bitcoin will reach $50 000.

According to him, the government in the next five years will systematically «kill» financial privacy, in an effort to control the various areas. While cryptocurrencies will be the «last Bastion» of financial privacy. Therefore, the demand for the digital currency will grow.

$20 000

Co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee is known in cryptosuite largely thanks to its forecasts. It is full of optimistic assumptions about the future price of bitcoin cause a considerable resonance among the participants of kryptonyte.

For example, in August, Li expressed the opinion that by the end of this year, the price of BTC can reach $20 000. Will help with the growth of digital gold is not who other, as the US Federal reserve (fed) reduce the rate and thus weaken the dollar.

«Bitcoin strengthens its position as a tool for macroregiunea risks. The decline in interest rates increases liquidity, this leads to the fact that the money is sent to all risky assets, and hedging. In turn, this positively affects bitcoin,» said co-founder of Fundstrat.

Another important factor in the growth of the market for sure, trading tensions between the US and China. The expert is confident that over time, bitcoin becomes a means of hedging of global risks, are increasingly showing a correlation with protective assets like gold and bonds and negative — with the stock market.

Note that earlier predictions there was much less restrained. For example, in June, the analyst said that after overcoming the level of $10 000 driven FOMO bitcoin price in a few months will reach us $40 000.

~ $16 000

The founder of Standpoint Research’s Ronnie Moas came to the conclusion that the annual inflation rate of bitcoin is lower than that of currencies in more than 70 countries, including the United States.

According to him, currently the leading cryptocurrency inflation is 4% per year, and after halving in may 2020 will be reduced to 2%. This will make bitcoin a better store of value.

Moas said that if the US stock market could rise twice in the next 5-7 years, the price of bitcoin will double in the next 5-7 months.

Forecast made on November 18, when BTC was trading at around $8200. Therefore, Moas expects the March-may 2020 the price of bitcoin will be just above $16 000.

$10 000

The head of kleptomanka Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz notes that in recent months, the industry suffers from a lack of fundamentally important events that could push the market up.

In October, the investor expressed confidence that bitcoin will return to the psychological mark of $10,000. However, before doing this the first cryptocurrency will push off from the support at $6500.

Like many experts, Novogratz believes that global instability is a major factor in the growth of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies:

«With the yuan more than 7, currency war, instability in Hong Kong and the beginning of capital flight, rally BTC can really continue.»

Note that part of the forecast Novogratz has come true — at the end of November the price really reached a local bottom just above $6500 and at the moment of writing is trading around $7300.

Bitcoin skeptics: from $6000 to zero

$6000

Financial expert and critic of cryptocurrencies Peter Schiff in October stated that the technical picture for BTC looks terrible. Seeing on the chart pattern «Bear flag», he suggested that the price of bitcoin falls to the level of $6000.

Then he noticed signs of the formation of the figure «Head and shoulders» with the goal at $2000. Trader WhalePanda immediately offered bitcoin skeptic to open a short position with a leverage of 100x on BitMEX.

Previously, Peter Schiff said that digital gold has failed the test of a defensive asset.

$4000

It may seem strange, but known in the community trader Tone Weiss does not exclude that shortly bitcoin will reach $4000. However, according to him, this mark will serve as an excellent signal for large purchases.

«When bitcoin will bottom above or below $4000 or there, I’ll go for broke and sell all that is possible, [to purchase]», — promised Weiss.

As a trader, Weiss often uses technical factors, however, are not alien to him and fundamental analysis.

$0

The world famous predictor of global crises Nouriel Roubini believes that the value of bitcoin tends to zero, as does Ethereum.

«The crypt and all these sidoine — the biggest mistake of our era. Problem solving, unbanked people, in fact, is a disguised intention to take the money. Neither decentralization nor financial security, nor the deficit, nor privacy. All this is not that other, as the stories of chronically ill simpletons who put money in sidoni,» said Roubini during a discussion with the head of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes.

We can debate the negative predictions and criticism of bitcoin, but does that make sense? Obituaries bitcoin has appeared in various media since the first years of the existence of cryptocurrency. According to the site Bitcoin Obituaries, to date, bitcoin has «died» already 378 times.

Below shows a kind of ranking of the forecast prices from the bitcoin experts:

However, you should take into account that these objectives differ by forecast horizon. In addition, many analysts — Bobby Lee, Peter Brandt, Naeem Aslam — certainly not indicative of the future value of BTC, but only a range, which can be quite wide (in this diagram are the prices corresponding to the lower ends of the ranges).

The table below provides a brief justification for the above predictions:

As it turned out, most experts rely on fundamental factors. The most important they consider these characteristics of bitcoin as a deficit, relatively low transaction costs and an acceptable speed of payments.

Analysts also often refer to a variety of external levers. However, it is unlikely bitcoin is vulnerable to macroeconomic factors in the same way that traditional assets.

For example, the US stock market can be sensitive to the slightest changes in the fed rate and other changes of monetary policy. Bitcoin, on the contrary, outside the control of governments and Central banks, hence the impact of these institutions on its price can be only indirect.

***

It is difficult to imagine an asset forecasts on which so much would be different. Bitcoin is a truly unique, and to predict its price is not so easy, especially if you listen to the opinion of each expert.

Forecasting complicate bitcoin weak correlation with traditional assets, the inconsistency of the influence of macroeconomic factors and poorly developed methodology of fundamental analysis. In addition, the market value of BTC might one day suddenly fall or rise more than $1000, putting an end to most short-term forecasts.

However, many experts believe that over time, the volatility of cryptocurrencies will be reduced, and its liquidity to grow. This will make the market more predictable and appealing for institutional investors willing to invest in bitcoin really big money.

Alexander Kondratyuk


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